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For chemical fiber products, the price of imported products will not only rise, but the price of crude oil will definitely drive up the price of downstream petrochemical products.
Exchange rate: A few days ago, the offshore RMB exchange rate fell rapidly, and it fell more than 700 points in the day, breaking the 6.82 mark. Such a depreciation rate is astonishing, and for a chemical importing country like China, it has undoubtedly pushed up the cost of importing chemical fiber raw materials.
Crude oil: Saudi Arabia reduced crude oil exports, US oil rigs decreased, the US dollar exchange rate fell, and crude oil futures rose. On the 27th, WTI September crude oil futures closed up 0.45% to $69.61 per barrel. Brent September crude oil futures closed up 0.83% to $74.54 a barrel.
Recently, PTA, MDI, PA66, ethylene glycol, polyester filament yarn... a variety of chemical fiber products have started to rise. This summer, as the exchange rate continues to fall, crude oil prices are rising, and environmental protection pressures are not decreasing, chemical fiber products will continue to "high fever" continuously!
However, when the upstream chemical fiber raw materials are in a carnival, the downstream is terrible!
The era of sharing, artificial intelligence, and new-style retailing have blown into the textile industry, driven by the giants. Pressure!
Suspension, production restriction, shutdown, seizure, rising raw material prices, workers' wages.......... For the textile industry, this hot summer is colder than winter. From 2017, to the 2018, the boss is still immersed in the splendour of last year, and suddenly found himself in a vast ocean. This is obviously not the time when the industry is making money.
The 2018 industry has already passed more than half, and the economically stable and good situation does not seem to be revealed in the textile industry.
In the second half of the year, the Sino-US trade war was officially opened, a large number of manufacturing orders were shifted outwards, the third- and fourth-tier cities were destocking, and the property market bond market was intensified. The Chinese economy will enter a painful deleveraging. The process of foaming. The demographic dividend is reduced, the number of newborn children is extremely reduced, and the aging is becoming more and more serious. The textile industry must be prepared for the violent decline of orders.
In the second half of the year: the export is blocked, the domestic demand is blocked, and the company has no gods.
Although mainland economic experts have repeatedly claimed that the Sino-US trade war has a very limited impact on China's economy, its impact on GDP is less than 0.69%. The dependence of China's economy on foreign trade has fallen sharply, but these so-called brick houses may be filled with positive energy. The brain did not foresee the following catastrophic effects that could result from a full-scale trade war between China and the United States:
1, China's economic affordability, when the property market, the stock market, the bond market and the foreign exchange market are facing huge risks, a straw may burst the bubble, and the disaster will reach thousands of people, not to mention that China earns from the United States every year. More than two billion net income.
2. The impact of the huge uncertainty brought about by the Sino-US trade war on overall foreign investment and exports. We know that foreign-invested enterprises investing in China are usually at the high end of the industrial chain. Their investment in China usually prospers the entire industrial chain. When they are evacuated, the entire industrial chain is uprooted.
Under the influence of the United States on China's export tariffs, foreign-funded enterprises will certainly transfer orders to Southeast Asia and other regions not involved in the trade war.
3. The huge US market has a great effect on stabilizing the exchange rate. There is no doubt that the United States is the world's largest consumer market, accounting for 30% of the world's consumption, and the United States is China's largest export market. With the amount of foreign exchange earned from the United States, we can not only make the RMB exchange rate more stable, but also economic. It is more stable, and there is enough money to buy advanced equipment and technology that China cannot temporarily produce from overseas.
Once this blood vessel is cut off, the Chinese economy will inevitably face an overall risk.
4. The overwhelming influence of the United States as the world hegemon. Once the Sino-US trade war is opened, it will spread to the political and even military fields. Ultimately, it will not lead to a showdown between the two sides. As a result, some of the world's major economies will face the choice of China or the United States.
With China's current strength, it is almost impossible to let Europe, Japan, South Korea and other countries stand in China. These areas are precisely China's most important export markets.
After the Sino-US trade war broke out, in the troika of foreign trade, investment, and domestic demand, there was only one way of domestic demand. In recent times, the word domestic demand has been particularly loud, and even pensions, medical care, and education have become domestic resources that can be excavated.
However, if you think about it in the second half of the year, there is really no room for maneuvering in China.
1. According to the statistics just released, GDP growth was 6.8% in the first half of the year, and fiscal revenue increased by 10.6%. However, the foreign trade surplus narrowed by 26.7% and the resident income increased by 6.6%.
Do you see a few meanings? The overall income of the residents did not outperform the inflation. Considering that the income is concentrated in the hands of a very small number of people, the disposable income of most people should be reduced. The money in the pockets of the people is getting less and less.
2, in recent years, real estate is very obvious to the real enterprises and the blood-sucking of consumption. The only consumption power of the people in the city has been sucked away by the real estate. Therefore, this year, the farmers’ fruits cannot be sold. The reason is that the city people even There is no money to consume fruit.
Therefore, in the second half of 2018, for the innumerable filament weaving enterprises, it is probably the most challenging half year since the reform and opening up.
Not only are six wallets close to cognac, on the contrary, many people are overwhelmed by “seven loans” such as business loans, mortgages, car loans, consumer loans, education loans, private loans, and usury loans. Exports and domestic demand are doomed. Get a ratio.
The consumption of products is extremely declining, the purchasing power of consumption is extremely declining, the industry is saturated, and there are many competing products. The business in the second half of the year will be even more bleak. The decline in orders is by no means an alarmist. The textile mill boss counts the business of these years. Is it constantly growing or falling?
Inner Mongolian chemical giant Junzheng Group's current liabilities increased by 2.9 billion yuan, Shandong Chenxi Group filed for bankruptcy, the decline in orders is not a trend, but a living fact.
In the complex market environment, the raw material of chemical fiber is not weak in the off-season, and the price trend is like the high temperature in summer. If the prices of raw materials continue to rise, for the downstream enterprises, under the environmental protection policy, they will face the price pressure and the terminal demand will not be significantly boosted. In 2018, it will be even more difficult.